Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultChelsea win 1.85↗BTTSYes 1.57↗O/UOver 2.5 1.62↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginChelsea by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-3Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.7%
Expected goals1.21 – 1.82Fulham / Chelsea
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.7%
#21-29.7%
#30-28.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.7%
Model fair odds10.33
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-2.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-17.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Fulham are competitive at Craven Cottage but begin a new era without suspended Andersen, while Chelsea carry greater attacking depth. The visitors can edge a tight derby.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy