Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Gil Vicente should control more territory at home, while Casa Pia are likely to keep the contest compact. A low-scoring match may be decided by one chance.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
