Israeli Liga Leumit · Monday, 24 August 2026

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Afula Correct Score Prediction

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

1-1

Hapoel Afula

Kick-off: 16:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.10BTTSYes 1.75O/UUnder 2.5 View oddsFT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score0-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-113.7%

Expected goals1.28 – 1.28Maccabi Ahi Nazareth / Hapoel Afula

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.7%

#20-19.0%

#31-09.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	9.0%	6.3%	2.7%	0.9%
1	9.0%	13.7%	8.1%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.3%	8.1%	5.2%	2.2%	0.7%
3	2.7%	3.4%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate13.7%

Model fair odds7.30

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-3.0 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-17.8%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published23 Aug 2026 · 20:05 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.50View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away2.50View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No1.95View odds

Over 2.5—View odds

Under 2.5—View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

This Liga Leumit matchup looks evenly balanced, with neither side showing enough attacking superiority to justify a strong directional call. A low-scoring draw is the safer projection.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy