Prediction summary
Correct score2-0
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRoma win 1.65↗BTTSNo 1.85↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.91↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginRoma by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score4-0Result status: lost
Italian Serie A · Monday, 24 August 2026
Roma v Fiorentina Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-010.7%
Expected goals1.75 – 0.91Roma / Fiorentina
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.8%
#21-011.6%
#32-010.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.7%
Model fair odds9.36
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-2.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-19.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Roma finished last season with five straight league wins and retain strong attacking options. Fiorentina are rebuilding after a poor campaign, giving the hosts a clear edge.
→ 2-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy