Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultHamburg win 1.44↗BTTSYes 1.50↗O/UOver 2.5 1.36↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginHamburg by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-3Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.6%
Expected goals1.17 – 2.33Verl / Hamburg
Most likely scorelines
#11-29.6%
#21-18.8%
#30-28.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 2.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.6%
Model fair odds10.43
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-23.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Verl can threaten at home in a cup tie, but Hamburg regain key senior players and possess superior quality. Expect resistance before the Bundesliga side prevails.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy