Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Bristol Rovers bring senior physicality, but Chelsea's U21 side have enough pace and technical quality to exploit space. An open game slightly favours the visitors.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
