Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
San Martin are winless in five and have scored only twice during that run. Argentino de Quilmes also hold the better recent H2H record, favouring a narrow away win.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
