Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
Valencia opened with a goalless draw and have limited attacking momentum, while Betis began more positively. A low-scoring contest slightly favours the visitors.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
