Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 15.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Villa Dalmine sit second, recently beat Talleres 2-0 away and have been particularly difficult to break down. Another tight home victory looks plausible.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
