Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12.8% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
The tie is level after the first leg, making this a cautious second-leg contest. AEK's home advantage should matter, but a low-scoring one-goal margin is more likely than a rout.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
