Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-0
Al-Ahli are reigning Asian champions and arrive after a 4-0 league victory. Auckland face a major step up in quality and travel conditions, favouring a comfortable Saudi win.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
