Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.4% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Newcastle are strong home favourites and possess considerably greater squad depth. Even with rotation, their quality at St James' Park should produce a controlled victory.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
