Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultVietnam win 1.80↗BTTSNo 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.65↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginVietnam by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-010.6%
Expected goals1.56 – 0.94Vietnam / Thailand
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.3%
#21-010.6%
#30-010.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.6%
Model fair odds9.45
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-3.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-26.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Vietnam lead the final 2-0 on aggregate after winning in Thailand and have conceded very little throughout the knockout phase. Game state favours another controlled home result.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy