Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Benfica lead 3-1 and can manage the second leg, but their attacking quality remains substantially higher. AGF should push harder at home and can score once.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
