Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.55↗BTTSYes 1.55↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.20↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
England - National League · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Boreham Wood FC v Boston United FC Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-111.6%
Expected goals1.96 – 1.08Boreham Wood FC / Boston United FC
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.6%
#22-19.9%
#32-09.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.2% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.6%
Model fair odds8.61
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-5.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-30.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Boreham Wood's preparation is complicated by the Abdul Abdulmalik transfer dispute. Boston can exploit the uncertainty, but home advantage prevents a strong away-win call.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
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