Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Iberia's home advantage keeps them competitive, but Jagiellonia carry more attacking quality and European-level depth. Both teams scoring with an away edge is preferred.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
