International Clubs - UEFA Europa League · Thursday, 27 August 2026

FC Thun v KKS Lech Poznan Correct Score Prediction

FC Thun

1-1

KKS Lech Poznan

Kick-off: 18:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.35BTTSYes 1.45O/UUnder 2.5 2.15FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-2Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-112.3%

Expected goals1.47 – 1.55FC Thun / KKS Lech Poznan

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.3%

#21-28.6%

#32-18.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	6.5%	5.9%	3.0%	1.2%
1	6.1%	12.3%	8.6%	4.4%	1.7%
2	5.3%	8.2%	6.3%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.6%	4.0%	3.1%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.6%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate12.3%

Model fair odds8.16

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-3.1 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-20.4%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published26 Aug 2026 · 18:56 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.55View odds

Draw3.35View odds

Away2.30View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.45View odds

Both teams to score — No2.25View odds

Over 2.51.50View odds

Under 2.52.15View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Thun's home environment narrows the gap, while Lech possess greater European experience. The tactical balance points towards both sides scoring without either establishing control.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy