International Clubs - UEFA Conference League · Thursday, 27 August 2026

HNK Rijeka v FC Midtjylland Correct Score Prediction

HNK Rijeka

1-1

FC Midtjylland

Kick-off: 18:45 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.95BTTSYes 1.70O/UUnder 2.5 1.65FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score1-4Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.3%

Expected goals1.20 – 1.33HNK Rijeka / FC Midtjylland

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.3%

#20-09.6%

#30-18.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	8.9%	7.0%	3.1%	1.0%
1	7.9%	14.3%	8.5%	3.8%	1.2%
2	5.7%	7.6%	5.1%	2.3%	0.8%
3	2.3%	3.1%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.3%

Model fair odds6.98

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-1.1 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-6.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published26 Aug 2026 · 18:56 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.80View odds

Draw2.95View odds

Away2.35View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.70View odds

Both teams to score — No1.85View odds

Over 2.51.90View odds

Under 2.51.65View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Rijeka are difficult at home, while Midtjylland possess enough European quality to avoid being dominated. The matchup looks balanced and suited to a one-goal-each outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy