Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 14.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Lugano lead 2-1, forcing Maccabi to attack. Maccabi responded with five goals domestically and should create more at home, but Lugano remain dangerous enough to score.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
