Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMC Alger win 1.50↗BTTSNo 1.45↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.50↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginMC Alger by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-015.0%
Expected goals1.64 – 0.62MC Alger / MC Oran
Most likely scorelines
#11-015.0%
#22-014.0%
#31-112.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.0% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 7.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate15.0%
Model fair odds6.67
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-0.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-2.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
MC Alger have the stronger home profile, while Algerian top-flight games between established sides frequently remain low scoring. A controlled one-goal home victory is preferred.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy