Prediction summary
Correct score0-0
Correct score odds5.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 2.35↗BTTSNo 1.45↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.27↗FT goals0 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-0Result status: lost
Egypt - Premier League · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Modern Sport FC v Ghazl El Mahallah Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-017.8%
Expected goals1.04 – 0.85Modern Sport FC / Ghazl El Mahallah
Most likely scorelines
#10-017.8%
#21-116.0%
#31-013.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 16.0% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate17.8%
Model fair odds5.63
Recorded CS odds5.50
Bookmaker implied18.2%
Model-market gap-0.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-2.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The market strongly favours under 2.5 and BTTS No, while the last two meetings finished 0-0. Neither attack currently provides enough evidence to force a winner.
→ 0-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
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