Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Qarabag already demonstrated they can restrict Twente away from home. Back in Azerbaijan, their European experience and game-management ability favour another narrow victory.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
