Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 15.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
The first leg ended 2-2, confirming attacking threat on both sides. Rakow's home advantage tips a balanced tie their way, while Hajduk remain capable of scoring.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
