Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 10.1% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-0
Freiburg already won 3-1 in Scotland and followed that with a 5-1 cup victory. Motherwell must chase a two-goal deficit, creating space for the stronger hosts.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
