Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultSM Caen win 2.40↗BTTSNo 1.90↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.70↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginSM Caen by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-08.1%
Expected goals1.33 – 1.22SM Caen / SC Bastia
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.9%
#20-010.1%
#32-18.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 14.9% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.1%
Model fair odds12.27
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-6.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-43.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
This profiles as a tight French lower-division game where defensive structure should dominate. Caen's home advantage gives them the narrowest of edges.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy