Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.40↗BTTSYes 1.67↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.95↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: lost
Spanish La Liga Primera · Friday, 28 August 2026
Alaves v Villarreal Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.0%
Expected goals1.27 – 1.49Alaves / Villarreal
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.0%
#21-28.9%
#30-18.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.0%
Model fair odds7.71
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-3.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-22.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Alaves have four points from two matches, including a 3-0 opening win, while Villarreal have drawn both games. Home resilience and Villarreal's superior attacking quality largely cancel each other out.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy