| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Harrogate have scored 13 goals across their last five matches, compared with six for Aldershot. The hosts should contribute at home, but Harrogate's current attacking momentum gives them the edge.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
