Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 2.70↗BTTSYes 1.95↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.50↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: won
Croatian 1.NL · Friday, 28 August 2026
Bijelo Brdo v Cibalia Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-115.2%
Expected goals1.17 – 1.09Bijelo Brdo / Cibalia
Most likely scorelines
#11-115.2%
#20-012.3%
#31-010.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate15.2%
Model fair odds6.56
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-1.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-8.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Both sides began positively, with Bijelo Brdo winning 1-0 and Cibalia 2-1. Their recent profiles show little separation, making a low-scoring draw the most balanced exact-score projection.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy