Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.10↗BTTSYes 2.05↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.57↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-3Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.9%
Expected goals1.45 – 0.86Cremonese / Modena
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.9%
#21-013.0%
#30-011.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 13.9% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.5% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.9%
Model fair odds7.21
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Cremonese's first home league fixture should be closely contested against an organised Modena side. Early-season uncertainty and limited separation between the teams make a score draw the balanced selection.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy