Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-3
City started with a victory and retain far greater attacking depth. Palace can threaten in transition at Selhurst Park, but sustained City pressure should ultimately create a two-goal winning margin.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
