Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultViborg win 1.70↗BTTSYes 1.60↗O/UOver 2.5 1.62↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginViborg by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-3Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.9%
Expected goals1.12 – 1.88Horsens / Viborg
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.5%
#21-29.9%
#30-28.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.9%
Model fair odds10.15
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-1.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Horsens have improved with consecutive victories, but Viborg recently beat Copenhagen 4-0 and AGF 2-1. Both sides can score, with Viborg showing the higher attacking ceiling.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy