Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultLaval win 2.05↗BTTSNo 1.85↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.70↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginLaval by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-3Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-010.6%
Expected goals1.45 – 1.04Laval / Grenoble
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.0%
#21-010.6%
#30-09.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.6%
Model fair odds9.46
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-3.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-26.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Laval enter in the stronger run, while Grenoble have recently suffered heavy defeats against Saint-Etienne and Dunkerque. Laval's home advantage points towards a narrow clean-sheet victory.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy