Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultPSG win 1.75↗BTTSYes 1.65↗O/UOver 2.5 1.67↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginPSG by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.8%
Expected goals1.11 – 1.83Lille / PSG
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.5%
#21-29.8%
#30-28.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.8%
Model fair odds10.19
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-1.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Lille began with an impressive 2-0 win and remain difficult at home. PSG drew their opener but possess the greater attacking ceiling, making a narrow away victory the preferred scenario.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy