Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.55↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.10↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-4Result status: lost
Austrian Bundesliga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Lustenau v Swarovski Tirol Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.9%
Expected goals1.55 – 1.36Lustenau / Swarovski Tirol
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.9%
#22-18.9%
#31-27.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.9%
Model fair odds7.78
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Lustenau have lost only once in eight league games and once in their last 20 competitive home matches, but WSG have an excellent historical away record here. A draw fits both trends.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
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