Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.20↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.75↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-2Result status: lost
English Championship · Friday, 28 August 2026
Wrexham v Birmingham Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.9%
Expected goals1.36 – 1.21Wrexham / Birmingham
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.9%
#21-09.2%
#30-08.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 13.9% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.9%
Model fair odds7.21
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Both sides are searching for their first Championship victory after drawing their opening league games. Birmingham also enter after a damaging 6-1 cup defeat and short recovery period.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
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